It looks like we are entering the end of Merkel-ism in Europe. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is approaching her final days in that position.
Be it next week or the end of this year, we are looking at unprecedented change in European politics thanks to Merkel’s insistence on taking in millions of Syrian and North African refugees from chaos unleashed by aggressive and insane foreign policy actions by the U.S. and supported by the EU.
From the destruction of Libya to the manufactured ‘civil war’ in Syria the displacement of millions of people was created from the desired to destabilize the entire region for the betterment of the U.S. and its allies in the region, Saudi Arabia and Israel. Jordan, Turkey and Qatar were originally involved but have since jumped ship in the wake of Russia’s intervention there.
Merkel’s current plight politically stems from her intractability in accepting the chain of events that led us to this point. All of the problems of Europe now stem from the collision of these foreign policy disasters and the economic degradation of the euro-zone from the flawed structure of the euro itself.
And the insistence of the U.S./Saudi/Israeli alliance to continue trying to manufacture a win in Syria that is clearly beyond their control at this point only tightens the noose around Merkel’s neck.
Let me explain.
Simply put, there is a perfect storm now arising in Europe as the consequences of a number of policies converge into this period of time. They are as follows:
Having each country maintain a separate central bank to issue sovereign debt denominated in euros is the main culprit for enriching Germany and the northern bloc like the Netherlands and Holland and impoverishing much of the rest of Europe — Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece, to name a few.
This mispriced the risk of these loans by implying a German backstop to them via the ECB and the Bundesbank.
As the euro rose in the 2000’s the value of the debt these countries issued skyrocketed in real value, destroying their fiscal situation and forcing debt restructuring which kicked the can down the road.
The Troika of the IMF, the ECB and the EU, led by Germany, forced new loans on these countries with ‘easy terms’ to pay off the old loans but never fixed the underlying problem because, well, Keynesianism.
To obtain this ‘relief’ from the Troika these countries had to accept onerous and politically unpopular ‘austerity’ measures which targeted budget deficits without reforming the euro to achieve any kind of growth.
This fueled the rise of populism across Europe which began stirring with early strong returns from Five Star Movement in Italy, Syriza in Greece and UKIP in the U.K.
The economic ruination of Europe climaxed with the horrific Greek debt showdown of 2015 which ripped the kindly mask off of Germany as the beneficent Emperor of the EU and revealed Merkel and her henchman Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble as the rapacious oligarchs they are.
Meanwhile the U.S. began the operation to overthrow Assad in Syria in 2012, which by early 2015 had displaced millions into countries like Turkey, who, at Merkel’s invitation, began shipping them to Europe so she could then play Mother Theresa to the world’s ‘tired and hungry, yearning to breathe free’ or some such nonsense.
Now with all of these refugees coming into Europe, the countries who were under ‘austerity’ from the Troika got no help nor any accounting relief from them. Merkel et.al. insisted that they absorb these people in principle while also adhering to strict budgetary restraints imposed on them for Merkel’s loan-sharking assistance.
By 2017 the revolt against migrants in Western Europe saw the overthrow of ruling parties all over the map. Merkel was losing allies left and right. It continues today.
The Italian elections ended with a hostile coalition to her while her own elections left her without much support within the Bundestag and vulnerable to a ‘no-confidence’ vote over immigration policy, which is where we are today.
President Trump is attacking Germany’s status as the rentier class of the EU through both tariffs on Germany’s main exports to the U.S. as well as its refusal to honor its commitment to NATO on defense spending.
The U.S. and Israel continue to drag out their loss in Syria by opposing any further consolidation of President Assad’s power in the hope of retaining enough territory to keep Syria an open wound to make headlines with while frustrating Iran and Russia.
It is the last point, however, I want to focus on now. Merkel is trapped now by this situation. There is no ‘third way’ out of this. The people who stand behind her, the Soros-Set, for lack of a better term, want continued influx of migrants into Europe.
Those that oppose Trump domestically are tying his hands politically to keep him in Syria for as long as possible. Every time he mentions getting out of Syria another false flag occurs.
Right now the SAA has begun its campaign to retake the southwestern part of Syria around Dara’a which the U.S. and Israel vehemently protest. Is the protest real or just some much theatre?
As long as Iranian troops aren’t involved, it is likely just theatre. But. at the same time, as discussed in this great post at Moon of Alabama, the U.S. is stirring the pot heavily in the Southeast near Deir Ezzor and the Iraqi border.
The interesting part about this is that the SAA is, apparently, pushing back against the unilaterally-declared deconfliction zone around the U.S. base at Al-Tanf, near the Iraq/Jordan/Syria border.
Trump’s campaign in Syria goes beyond just trying to effect regime change in Iran. It is also part of his full-court press to force real change in Europe. By keeping Syria a mess, with multiple areas of the country unstable it puts even more pressure on Europe to deal with potential migration issues.
This morning, as part of his election campaign, President Erdogan in Turkey vowed to send the Syrian refugees in Turkey back home. But to where, exactly?
Merkel herself, in support of her own policy, visited Lebanon where there are millions of Syrian refugees and said Syria isn’t stable enough for them to return home.
Are you getting the picture yet?
But any substantive change in the U.S.’s military position in Syria will change that in a heartbeat. The main source of the instability in Syria would end and life there could begin to return to normal.
Unfortunately, that doesn’t serve the goals of the power elite nor their quislings, like Merkel. And so this insanity will continue until it can’t and then something radical will change.
For Merkel, she no longer has any allies. Macron in France wants to take over for her as leader of the EU, so he’ll back the U.S. in Syria.
It is Italy that has the leverage over her now. They can’t come out against the U.S. in Syria when they need Trump’s help with Merkel. So, the immigration issue will stay on the front burner long enough to get Merkel removed from power and gain the new government domestic support.
For her part Merkel and Macron’s new EU restructuring plan would be in Italy’s favor but it was solidly rejected by most of the creditor nations, unsurprisingly.
Let the negotiations for Merkel’s future begin.
* * *
To support more work like this and get access to exclusive commentary, stock picks and analysis tailored to your needs join my more than 120 Patrons on Patreon and see if I have what it takes to help you navigate a world going slowly mad.