DOW JONES: Ever The Jewel In The Crown
As expected, the Dow, when compared with the SPX and the NASDAQ to name two, presents the most of the bunch. The recent drop was severe, but no long-term damage has been done. And while the SP500 and NASDAQ closed red last week, the DJIA closed green. This is telling us that though profit-taking has set in, fundamentals underpin this market.
Although it was a large drop, we have only tested the breakout line of the 2018 Symmetrical Triangle, which is a texbook move. It would be very to ride this line down, making new lows, without a breakdown.
Of course, it is too early to say if this would happen, yet it remains on the table. The possibility of making new lows cannot be ruled out, especially in light of the incoming elections.
Another, more extreme possibility is that we whipsaw down, taking out the 2018 lows, and immediately return on an upward trajectory. This would also be a textbook whipsaw, as it would take out both the previous highs and lows of 2018, confusing everyone.
As always, we need to create the technical conditions that convert the consensus into bearishness.
I remain in a long-term long position, with funds ready to buy on further drops. The purple area is important – as long as we CLOSE above there, my bullishness remains. I am long-term , short-term neutral.